David J. Eiswert, Portfolio Manager at T. Rowe Price
So the first thing I would say is that if you think about why we're not in a deep recession right now, it's because we didn't have a credit cycle. There is no credit cycle, right. And so keep that in your mind like if you don't have a credit cycle it's hard to have a really bad recession, right. So I think when you think about that, think about if I'm really going to get bearish is this should I buy the dip. There's a lot of great companies in there. Do you have a shopping list or the things you want to buy? Because if we don't get a credit cycle, it's a good time to look, to be looking and see if there's good things to buy. That's what I'm going to do, right? So pay attention to this idea of where we have a credit cycle.
The second thing is that, like, are we on a different equilibrium path, right. So will inflation keep inflation higher than it's been? And do you know how to invest in that environment? Because what I find is that most people haven't really, really most people in their career, if you're sitting here today, right, in 2023, in your career, you've never experienced an environment different than secular stagnation. You're basically hard wired for the Fed to cut. That's why there are like seven cuts priced in the next year, right?
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