The outlook for the UK has often been described by economists as 'unusually uncertain' over the past year, and I have normally had some sympathy with this position.
Forecasting is complicated at the best of times, and particularly so when the trading relationship with the UK's closest economic partner is upended in the middle of a global pandemic. As a result, it was unsurprising to see the Bank of England return to this familiar refrain about uncertainty to describe the outlook at its last meeting. Of course, the path ahead for Covid-19 remains unpredictable even a year into the pandemic and downside risks will need to be carefully monitored for some time. Yet on the assumption that vaccines will succeed in breaking the link between higher l...
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